How insurgencies end

Preface . . iii
Figures . . vii
Tables . . ix
Summary . . xi
Acknowledgments . . xix
Abbreviations . . xxi

CHAPTER ONE
Introduction . . 1
Purpose of This Monography . . 2
A Note on Contemporary Threats and Operations . . 4
Research Approach . . 4
Graphs Used in This Monograph . . 6
Conventional Wisdom . . 6
How This Monograph Is Organized . . 11

CHAPTER TWO
Classifying Outcomes and Selecting Cases . . 13
Outcomes . . 13
Type I: Government Loss . . 14
Type II: Government Victory . . 17
Type III: Mixed (Stalemate/Negotiated Settlement) . . 18
Type IV: Inconclusive or Ongoing Outcome . . 20
The Tipping Point: Explanation by Way of Example . . 21
Key Indicators: A Note of Caution . . 23

CHAPTER THREE
Assessments of Insurgency Endings: Time and External Factors . . 25
Assessments of Time and External Factors . . 27
Duration of Conflict . . 27
Sanctuary Available . . 34
Outside Intervention in Support of Government . . 49
Outside Intervention in Support of Insurgencies . . 62

CHAPTER FOUR
Assessments of Insurgency Endings: Internal Factors . . 77
Structure . . 77
Thailand and the BRN and the PULO . . 84
Urbanization . . 88
Uruguay and the Tupamaros . . 94
Insurgent Use of Terrorism . . 99
Insurgent Strength . . 110
System of Government . . 114

CHAPTER FIVE
Assessments of Insurgency Endings: Other Factors . . 127
Force Ratios . . 127
Civil-Defense Forces . . 141

CHAPTER SIX
Conclusions . . 151

APPENDIXES
A. Case Studies: Methodology . . 157
B. Supplemental Findings . . 165
C. Multivariate Regression Analysis . . 195
D. Insurgencies Not Examined for This Publication . . 199
E. Categories Used for the Spring 2006 Survey . . 203
F. Unavoidable Ambiguities . . 209
G. Questions Used for the Autumn 2006 Survey . . 215

Glossary . . 219
Bibliography . . 223