Climate change : a multidisciplinary approach

Preface page ix
Acknowledgements xiii
List of Boxes xv

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Weather and Climate 2
1.2 What Is Climate Variability and Climate Change? 2
1.3 Connections, Timescales and Uncertainties 3

2 RADIATION AND THE EARTH'S ENERGY BALANCE 10

2.1 Solar and Terrestrial Radiation 11
2.1.1 Radiation Laws 11
2.1.2 Solar Radiation 15
2.1.3 Terrestrial Radiation 15
2.1.4 The Energy Balance of the Earth 20
2.2 Solar Variability 27
2.3 Summary 30

3 THE ELEMENTS OF THE CLIMATE 32

3.1 The Atmosphere and Oceans in Motion 32
3.2 Atmospheric Circulation Patterns 36
3.3 Radiation Balance 45
3.4 The Hydrological Cycle 49
3.5 The Biosphere 50
3.6 Sustained Abnormal Weather Patterns 51
3.7 Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions 56
3.8 The Great Ocean Conveyor 67
3.9 Summary 71

4 EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 73

4.1 Peering into the Abyss of Time 74
4.2 Atmospheric Composition 85
4.3 Sea Level Fluctuations 87
4.4 The Ice Ages 90
4.5 The End of the Last Ice Age 95
4.6 The Holocene Climatic Optimum 98
4.7 Changes in Recorded History 100
4.8 The Medieval Climatic Optimum 104
4.9 The 'Little Ice Age' 104
4.10 The Twentieth Century Warming 110
4.11 Concluding Observations 113

5 CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 116

5.1 Geological Consequences 117
5.2 Flora and Fauna 118
5.3 Mass Extinctions 122
5.4 Glaciers, Ice Caps, Ice Sheets and Sea Levels 123
5.5 The Historical Impact of Climatic Variations 126
5.6 Agriculture 128
5.7 Spread of Diseases 132
5.8 The Economic Impact of Extreme Weather Events 134
5.9 Summary 137

6 THE MEASUREMENT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE 139

6.1 Instrumental Observations 140
6.2 Satellite Measurements 146
6.3 Historical Records 151
6.4 Proxy Measurements 153
6.4.1 Tree Rings 154
6.4.2 Ice Cores 157
6.4.3 Ocean Sediments 161
6.4.4 Pollen Records 163
6.4.5 Boreholes 166
6.4.6. Other Proxy Measurements 167
6.5 Dating 168
6.6 Isotope Age Dating 169
6.7 Summary 173

7 STATISTICS, SIGNIFICANCE AND CYCLES 175

7.1 Time Series, Sampling and Harmonic Analysis 176
7.2 Noise 180
7.3 Measures of Variability and Significance 182
7.4 Smoothing 193
7.5 Multidimensional Analysis 197
7.6 Summary 199

8 THE CAUSES OF CLIMATIC CHANGE 201

8.1 Autovariance and Non-linearity 202
8.2 Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions 204
8.3 Ocean Currents 207
8.4 Volcanoes 208
8.5 Sunspots and Solar Activity 211
8.6 Tidal Forces 217
8.7 Orbital Variations 221 8.8 Changes in Atmospheric Composition 225
8.9 Human Activities 227
8.10 Catastrophes and the 'Nuclear Winter' 230
8.11 Summary 235

9 MODELLING THE CLIMATE 239

9.1 Global Circulation Models 240
9.2 Simulation of Climatic Variability 247
9.3 The Challenges Facing Modellers 252
9.3.1 Clouds 253
9.3.2 Land-Surface Processes 254
9.3.3 Winds, Waves and Currents 255
9.3.4 Other Greenhouse Gases 256
9.3.5 Exploitation of Numerical Weather Prediction 256
9.4 Summary 257

10 PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE 259

101 Natural Variability 259
10.2 Predicting Global Warming 261
10.3 The Predicted Consequences of Global Warming 263
10.4 When Will We Be Certain About Global Warming? 267
10.5 Can We Do Anything About Climate Change? 271
10.6 The Gaia Hypothesis 273

Bibliography 277
Glossary 283
Index 293