Unintended outcomes of social movements : the 1989 Chinese student movement

List of illustrations . . ix
Preface . . xi
Acknowledgments . . xiii

1 Understanding unintended outcomes of social movements . . 1
An unintended outcome of the 1989 Chinese student movement . . 2
Two reasons why the Tiananmen tragedy has not been presented as an unintended outcome . . 11
The advantages of applying a game theoretical approach . . 23
An important assumption . . 26
A theory of interaction between social movements and state . . 28

2 A brief history of the Chinese student movement for democracy
  (15 April 1989 to 4 June 1989) . . 31

3 Anti-threat resistance: a game with incomplete information . . 66
Preference structure: the mechanics of interaction . . 67
A model of movement development . . 68
Private information and a changed preference structure . . 73
A game with incomplete information . . 77
Conclusion . . 86

4 State's sub-optimal strategies: a two-level game . . 89
A two-level game 90 . . 90
The complexity of choosing a strategy in the two-level game . . 94
Incentives for consistency between the two games . . 95
A supplementary theory of consistency and sub-optimal strategies . . 96
Significant impacts of the state's sub-optimal strategies on movement development . . 100
Conclusion . . 101

5 Short-term gain and long-term loss for the participants:
  the dynamics of repeated games . . 103
The participants' changing beliefs: diminishing dangers . . 106
The participants' increasing payoff, X3 . . 110  
The participants' constant payoff, X2 . . 114
Decreasing the probability of the state choosing the sub-optimal strategy . . 115
Short-term gain and long-term loss for the participants . . 119
Conclusion . . 122

6 Information gap and bloody confrontation: the final game . . 124
State's threats: interdependent or independent . . 125
State's interests: the tangible interests of the present or
the intangible interests of the future . . 128
The foundation for the formation of the participants'
beliefs: past experience or a correct understanding of the current situation . . 133
Conclusion . . 13S

Appendix . . 138
Bibliography . . 140
Index . . 146